(from Housingwire.com)
For years, the housing internet has insisted Americans are trapped by their ultra-low mortgage rates like golden handcuffs. The theory goes: nobody with a 3% rate would ever sell and buy again at 6–7%, so housing inventory should be frozen. Sounds logical.
Turns out… the data doesn’t really back it up.
According to new analysis from Logan Mohtashami, more homeowners now have mortgage rates above 6% than below 3%. As of Q3 2025, 21.2% of homeowners carry rates over 6%, while only 20% are at 3% or lower. Back in early 2022, that relationship was flipped. The middle ground is shrinking too: homeowners with rates between 3% and 4% dropped from 40.5% to 31.5% in just a few years.
So who’s giving up a 2.5–5% mortgage to buy at a higher rate? Normal people, apparently.
Rate alone isn’t the whole payment equation. Home prices, equity, loan size, taxes, insurance, and income all matter, and today’s homeowners are sitting on far more equity than during the housing crash. FICO scores are strong, wages are higher, and foreclosure rates still haven’t even returned to 2019 levels.
Inventory adds another wrinkle. Active listings are still below “normal” (about 1.43 million vs. the usual 2–2.5 million, per National Association of Realtors), but supply has been growing. And a key stat gets overlooked constantly: roughly 40% of homes don’t have a mortgage at all, meaning there’s literally no rate to be locked into.
So when you’re sitting at family dinner, you can sound like a smarty pants by saying, “yes. rates do influence behavior, but they don’t override life. People still move for jobs, family, space, divorce, downsizing, or opportunity. The lockdown story sounds like the obvious scapegoat, but the data from HousingWire and This Week Today says shows otherwise.” You’re welcome!
Read more here
The Fed’s Mood for 2026: Cautiously Optimistic
(from National Mortgage News)
The Fed isn’t panicking about 2026, but it’s also not spiking the football.
Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said uncertainty should ease this year as businesses gain confidence in demand and Washington’s policy direction, which could support more hiring and investment. Inflation is cooling, unemployment is still low by historical standards, and Barkin says that combination could eventually allow policy to normalize.
That said, the Fed is threading a needle.
Inflation is still above the 2% target after nearly five years, while the labor market has softened just enough to make officials nervous. Barkin summed it up bluntly: no one wants inflation expectations to get entrenched, but no one wants the job market to crack either. That’s why the Fed is in wait-and-see mode after cutting rates three times last fall.
Why the optimism? Barkin pointed to incoming tailwinds: tax refunds from recent legislation, lower gas prices, deregulation efforts, and the delayed effects of 175 basis points of rate cuts made over the last 16 months. The Fed’s benchmark rate now sits between 3.5% and 3.75%, and officials want time to see how that stimulus actually flows through the economy.
The wildcard is data. A 43-day government shutdown in late 2025 left policymakers flying partially blind, but Barkin expects clearer signals soon. Fed Chair Jerome Powell echoed the cautious tone in December, while Neel Kashkari noted the Fed may already be close to “neutral” and is waiting to see whether inflation or labor becomes the bigger problem.
Read more here
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