01.07.26

Written by Chase Majerus

The Office Isn’t Dead. Neither Is Housing

Happy New Year!! If 2026 already feels like it’s moving fast, you’re not wrong, markets are shifting, narratives are getting challenged, and a lot of “obvious truths” about housing, rates, and money are quietly falling apart. This week’s This Week Today is about cutting through the noise, understanding what’s actually changing, and starting the year a little smarter than we ended the last one.

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Today's Agenda:

S1L Home Equity Loan

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A home equity line of credit, or HELOC, lets you borrow against your home’s available equity. Applying for a HELOC with Synergy One Lending is fast and easy. Our application is fast, easy, and all online. If pre-approved, you’ll be instantly presented with your offer options.

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The Office Is Back!... Not The TV Show

(from CNBC.com)

After years of “the office is dead” takes, Manhattan just posted its strongest office leasing quarter in 6 years.

Companies leased 11.87 million square feet in Q4, a 25% jump from the prior quarter, making 2025 the busiest leasing year since 2019 and only 2.4% below pre-pandemic levels, according to Colliers. The surge is being driven by return to office policies, renewed hiring in tech (especially AI), and companies making an effort to choose high quality office space.

Major tenants like Amazon, New York University, and BlackRock all expanded, while AI firms quietly soaked up space across the city. Demand in Q4 ran 16% higher year over year and sat more than 40% above long-term averages, numbers that don’t happen by accident.

Honestly though, why would any of this matter to people who don’t work in Manhattan??

New York is well recognized as being the bellwether for U.S. office real estate. When leasing stabilizes here, it reduces pressure on banks, pension funds, insurance companies, and city tax bases nationwide. Office buildings back trillions in loans and retirement assets. A functioning Manhattan office market lowers the risk of financial stress spilling into housing, lending, and local economies elsewhere.

That tightening demand is finally pushing rents up. Average asking rent hit $76 per square foot, the highest since 2020, while top-tier Class A buildings climbed to $83. Nearly 70% of all leased space went to four- and five-star buildings, including the year’s biggest deal, Deloitte, which is now leasing 800,000 square feet at Hudson Yards.

Is the market fully healed? Not yet. Manhattan has only shed about half of its post-pandemic excess office supply, and analysts say conversions and steady demand need to continue through 2026 and 2027. But this quarter sends a clear signal: the office did not in fact disappear. In fact, it’s evolving.

Read more here

Major Manor

The Beauty of The Claude Mon-sion

(from Smithsonian Magazine)

Painted by Claude Monet, praised by John Ruskin, and sitting directly on Venice’s Grand Canal, the infamous Palazzo Dario is officially back on the market. It’s one of the most beautiful (and allegedly cursed) homes in Venice, and yes, that reputation is very much part of the listing. Let’s check this out!

  • Prime Grand Canal location in Venice
  • 15th-century palace commissioned by Venetian diplomat Giovanni Dario
  • Nearly 11,000 square feet across 4 floors
  • Ground floor access from both street and canal
  • Marble staircase, large columns, and original exterior façade
  • Venetian fabrics, antique chandeliers, and a historic fountain
  • Upper floors with bedrooms and a terrace overlooking the canal
  • Painted at least four times by Monet during his Venice period
  • Listed by Christie’s International Real Estate with price available upon request (previously ~$21M)

The catch? A long history of owners meeting grim financial or personal ends has earned the palace its “cursed” legend, one that’s reportedly scared off modern buyers. Still, if you’re in the market for museum-level beauty, literary praise, and a little supernatural intrigue, this might be the most dramatic address in Europe.

Read more here

Social Space

Our Top Social Links of the week

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Financial Fitness

How to Make Your Money Goals Actually Stick This Year

(from Scientific American)

Most New Year’s resolutions fail not because people are lazy, but because they’re vague, miserable, or disconnected from real life. Behavioral economist Katy Milkman says lasting change comes from using fresh starts wisely and building systems that make good habits easier, and even enjoyable.

Here’s how that applies to financial fitness:

  • Use the fresh start… but don’t rely on motivation alone. New years, new months, even Mondays create momentum, but habits stick when you pair intention with structure.
  • Be specific. “Be better with money” fails. “Pay down $5,000 of high-interest debt” or “build a 3-month emergency fund” works.
  • Make it rewarding. Milkman calls this the “Mary Poppins effect” — pair money tasks with something you enjoy so it doesn’t feel like punishment.
  • Add accountability. Put guardrails around your behavior so future-you doesn’t sabotage present-you.

That’s exactly where Synergy One Lending’s S1 FinFit app comes in. It helps turn financial goals into trackable, realistic actions, budgeting, debt planning, savings habits, without relying on willpower alone. Think of it as your built-in accountability partner for money.

The science is clear, people don’t change because they want to. They change because their systems make it easier to succeed than to quit. Financial fitness works the same way. and with the right tools, it’s a habit you can actually keep.

Okay, Wallet, Now Let’s Get in Formation

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S1 FinFit is a FREE app that provides a roadmap to help you reach your financial and lifestyle goals, no matter how big or small! Free credit monitoring with alerts, set financial goals, create budgets, and keep track of your spending to see where your money is going.

Download the app on the appropriate app store with the links below!

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The "Mortgage Rate Lock-In" Might Be… Kinda Fake

(from Housingwire.com)

For years, the housing internet has insisted Americans are trapped by their ultra-low mortgage rates like golden handcuffs. The theory goes: nobody with a 3% rate would ever sell and buy again at 6–7%, so housing inventory should be frozen. Sounds logical.

Turns out… the data doesn’t really back it up.

According to new analysis from Logan Mohtashami, more homeowners now have mortgage rates above 6% than below 3%. As of Q3 2025, 21.2% of homeowners carry rates over 6%, while only 20% are at 3% or lower. Back in early 2022, that relationship was flipped. The middle ground is shrinking too: homeowners with rates between 3% and 4% dropped from 40.5% to 31.5% in just a few years.

So who’s giving up a 2.5–5% mortgage to buy at a higher rate? Normal people, apparently.

Rate alone isn’t the whole payment equation. Home prices, equity, loan size, taxes, insurance, and income all matter, and today’s homeowners are sitting on far more equity than during the housing crash. FICO scores are strong, wages are higher, and foreclosure rates still haven’t even returned to 2019 levels.

Inventory adds another wrinkle. Active listings are still below “normal” (about 1.43 million vs. the usual 2–2.5 million, per National Association of Realtors), but supply has been growing. And a key stat gets overlooked constantly: roughly 40% of homes don’t have a mortgage at all, meaning there’s literally no rate to be locked into.

So when you’re sitting at family dinner, you can sound like a smarty pants by saying, “yes. rates do influence behavior, but they don’t override life. People still move for jobs, family, space, divorce, downsizing, or opportunity. The lockdown story sounds like the obvious scapegoat, but the data from HousingWire and This Week Today says shows otherwise.” You’re welcome!

Read more here

The Fed’s Mood for 2026: Cautiously Optimistic

(from National Mortgage News)

The Fed isn’t panicking about 2026, but it’s also not spiking the football.

Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said uncertainty should ease this year as businesses gain confidence in demand and Washington’s policy direction, which could support more hiring and investment. Inflation is cooling, unemployment is still low by historical standards, and Barkin says that combination could eventually allow policy to normalize.

That said, the Fed is threading a needle.

Inflation is still above the 2% target after nearly five years, while the labor market has softened just enough to make officials nervous. Barkin summed it up bluntly: no one wants inflation expectations to get entrenched, but no one wants the job market to crack either. That’s why the Fed is in wait-and-see mode after cutting rates three times last fall.

Why the optimism? Barkin pointed to incoming tailwinds: tax refunds from recent legislation, lower gas prices, deregulation efforts, and the delayed effects of 175 basis points of rate cuts made over the last 16 months. The Fed’s benchmark rate now sits between 3.5% and 3.75%, and officials want time to see how that stimulus actually flows through the economy.

The wildcard is data. A 43-day government shutdown in late 2025 left policymakers flying partially blind, but Barkin expects clearer signals soon. Fed Chair Jerome Powell echoed the cautious tone in December, while Neel Kashkari noted the Fed may already be close to “neutral” and is waiting to see whether inflation or labor becomes the bigger problem.

Read more here

Vlog

Nearly 1 in 2 U.S. Homes Are Equity Rich

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(from Trenton Delane)

Nearly 1 in 2 U.S. homes are equity rich, and it’s quietly changing everything.

That stat doesn’t mean homeowners are swimming in cash. It means nearly half of U.S. homeowners owe 50% or less of their home’s value, and that equity is reshaping how the housing market actually behaves.

Quick shout: Trenton Delane  with Synergy One Lending did a great breakdown on this recently. If you want the quick-hit video version, check that out. Otherwise, here’s the short read.

What “equity rich” really means: Years of price growth, strong credit, and conservative lending have left many homeowners with significant equity, the opposite of the 2008 era, when millions were underwater.

Why it matters: Equity acts like shock absorption. Homeowners aren’t forced to sell when rates rise, foreclosures stay low, and inventory doesn’t flood the market the way people expect.

What equity can actually do:

  • Sell and move without blowing up finances
  • Tap a HELOC or equity loan for renovations or emergencies
  • Use cash-out strategically to consolidate higher-interest debt
  • Create flexibility even in a high-rate environment

That’s why housing hasn’t cracked the way doom headlines predicted. Equity doesn’t make homes cheap, but it gives owners options, and right now, options are everything.

Watch the full video here

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