(from Housingwire.com)
Housing inventory in 2025 had been gaining steam, with new listings hitting 80,000+ twice this year—but momentum is fading. Last week’s 76,181 new listings was down from the week prior, and we’re still well below the normal 80K–100K range for this time of year.
Active inventory is inching closer to 2019 levels, but growth was sluggish: just a 3,129 home increase last week versus over 13,000 in the same week last year.
Meanwhile, price cuts are climbing. 40% of homes had price reductions last week—up from 37% in 2024—supporting a cautious forecast of 1.77% home price growth for the year. Real home prices are still expected to be negative when adjusted for inflation.
What’s surprising? Purchase applications. Despite 7% mortgage rates, we’ve now had 20 straight weeks of year-over-year gains. Weekly pending sales also beat last year:
2025: 70,352
2024: 67,087
Total pending sales topped 405,000 last week, slightly ahead of 2024, even as the seasonal peak has passed.
Mortgage rates stayed stable, slipping from 6.91% to 6.86%, despite Fed chatter and market noise. Spreads have calmed, but still aren’t back to normal. If they were, today’s rates would be 0.6%–0.8% lower.
Coming up: Watch for home sales reports, price trend data, jobless claims, and a flurry of Fed speeches. The market may be cooling, but it’s still active—and full of mixed signals.
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