The Market’s Cooling—But The Drama’s Just Heating Up

(from Housingwire.com)

You’d think with more homes finally hitting the market, builders would be feeling better. Nope.

Builder confidence just slipped again in June, dropping to a score of 32 on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. For context, anything below 50 means “nah, things aren’t great.” This is one of the lowest scores since the pandemic sucker-punched the economy back in 2020.

What’s dragging it down? Same culprits: high mortgage rates, economic weirdness, and now tariff drama thrown in for good measure. Buyers are ghosting showrooms, and 37% of builders are cutting prices just to get some movement. That’s the most price-cutting the NAHB has ever tracked in a single month. Even big-name builders like Lennar are feeling it. Their home prices dropped nearly 9% year over year last quarter.

And it’s not just a builder mood swing. With fewer buyers pulling the trigger, inventory’s stacking up and home price growth is slowing in more markets. The NAHB says single-family housing starts could fall in 2025.

So yeah, confidence is down. But on the bright side, if you’ve been waiting for a break in pricing or more leverage with builders, this might be your moment.

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The Investors Are (Still) Coming

(from FoxBusiness.com)

So far we’ve talked about builder confidence tanking and inventory creeping up, both signs that the market’s cooling off. But here’s another layer: investors are quietly reshaping the game.

According to a new report from Realtor.com…

… small-time investors (those who’ve bought 10 homes or fewer) made up nearly 60% of all investor home purchases in 2024, the highest share on record.

Meanwhile, big players (institutional buyers with 50+ properties) hit their lowest activity level in 17 years. That’s a big shift. It means mom-and-pop investors are stepping in where Wall Street’s backing off.

Overall, investors accounted for 13% of all home purchases last year, a slight uptick from 2023, but because total home sales dropped, investors actually became more prominent in a shrinking market. More interesting? Investor selling hit an all-time high, suggesting a lot of these buyers are flipping, unloading, or simply cashing out.

Translation: investors are still in the mix, but they’re adapting, using more debt, selling more homes, and competing less aggressively with first-time buyers. That’s a silver lining if you’re a hopeful buyer frustrated by getting beat out by all-cash offers.

Add that to rising inventory and price cuts from homebuilders, and the message is clear: the post-pandemic housing craze is over. The market is shifting. And if you’re watching closely, there are windows of opportunity starting to open.

Read more here